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China's new central bank chief Pan Gongsheng will take the helm at a critical time for the world's second-largest economy, as he struggles to restore a post-Covid recovery that looks increasingly shaky despite giving up some of its powers in a regulatory shakeup. above. Not only has the PBoC's authority been weakened, with some oversight functions transferred to another regulator, but China's economy suffers from weak investor confidence that many experts say cannot be easily remedied through monetary policy. Analysts said the technocrat's appointment this weekend as the powerful head of the PBoC's Communist Party (he is also expected to soon be given the additional, more public role of governor) was welcomed by market participants due to his broad industry experience and Western contacts and training.
The consensus seems to be that Pan is the path of least resistance, as it represents policy continuity,” said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at Union Bancaire Privée. Pan replaces Guo Shuqing, the former PBoC party chief Job Function Email Database who also served as head of the country's banking regulator, and will replace Yi Gang, the outgoing governor who has held the position for more than five years. Both are respected technocrats who were expected to be replaced in March as Xi Jinping embarked on an unprecedented third five-year term as president, but were retained in an apparent move to boost financial sector regulation. You are viewing a snapshot of an interactive chart. This is most likely because you are offline or JavaScript is disabled in your browser. An immediate challenge for Pan is a growing debate over the timing and scale of monetary policy stimulus to boost China's recovery, with a range of indicators from manufacturing activity to exports losing steam in the second quarter.
Despite minor interest rate cuts, Beijing has been reluctant to follow the lead of central banks in developed countries by drastically easing monetary policy. Analysts warned that, despite Pan's international background, his appointment would not mean a radical change in monetary policy. Pan has publicly defended the central bank's current stance of “maintaining normal monetary policy” and “not making drastic changes to interest rates.” Aggressive monetary stimulus may not even necessarily trigger a much-sought demand revival, said Arup Raha, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Oxford Economics. He said Beijing's strategy was to target credit to certain areas and cut interest rates to soften the blow for some creditors until the global economy recovered. “Now it's more of a buffering exercise,” he said. “They're in a situation where you could cut interest rates as much as you wanted, but demand is gone and it's not certain to turn the economy around.” You are viewing a snapshot of an interactive chart.
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發表於 2024-3-10 12:01:22